How Great PMs Think: Lessons from Airbnb’s “Increase Bookings” Challenge

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How Great PMs Think: Lessons from Airbnb’s “Increase Bookings” Challenge

Compiled on October 31, 2025 Interview Prep Growth

By PyUncut | Product Strategy & Career Growth | Read Time: 12 Minutes

“Imagine you’re a Product Manager at Airbnb. How would you increase bookings?”

At first glance, this question sounds simple — almost like something you could answer in a few bullet points. But for anyone who has faced a real product strategy interview, you know this is a trap.

It’s not about having the right answer. It’s about how you think.

A product manager’s job isn’t to be a walking idea machine; it’s to make decisions under ambiguity, balance user empathy with business logic, and build conviction through data and clarity.

In a brilliant Exponent mock interview, Google PM Phil tackled this Airbnb case. What unfolded wasn’t just a mock interview — it was a masterclass in structured problem-solving and product mindset.

🧩 Step 1: The Mindset — Think Before You Solve

Before saying a single word about features or experiments, Phil did something that instantly differentiated him: he asked clarifying questions.

“Do I have free rein over the entire Airbnb experience, or just a specific surface?”

“Are we focusing on new users, existing users, or both?”

“What’s our timeline — short-term or long-term?”

These questions sound tactical, but they serve a deeper purpose: framing the problem space.

Most candidates jump straight into “let’s add a loyalty program” or “let’s give discounts.” That’s reactive thinking. A real PM operates from principles — not panic.

Lesson for Aspiring PMs: Before giving solutions, design the question you’re solving for.

🎯 Step 2: Define Success — What Does “Winning” Actually Mean?

Phil could have stopped at “increase bookings.” But he didn’t. He redefined success into a metric that actually mattered:

North Star: Increase nights per user per year, not just bookings.

“Bookings” are easy to chase through discounts or marketing, but they don’t represent real engagement. “Nights per user per year” measures depth — how central Airbnb becomes in someone’s travel life. It aligns perfectly with the company’s mission: help people experience travel authentically.

💡 Example: NSM Thinking for PM Interviews

CompanyVanity MetricReal North Star Metric
AirbnbTotal bookingsNights stayed per user per year
YouTubeViewsWatch time per active user
UberRidesTrips per monthly active rider
LinkedInSignupsConnections formed per new user
SpotifyInstallsMonthly listening hours per user

🧠 Step 3: Segment Users — Because Not All Growth Is Equal

Airbnb is a two-sided marketplace, but focusing on guests keeps the problem tractable. Next, segment travelers along two dimensions:

  1. Travel purpose: Business vs. Leisure
  2. Intent level: High intent (actively planning) vs. Low intent (not currently planning)
High IntentLow Intent
BusinessAlready loyal to hotelsNot worth chasing
LeisureCompeting on price & convenienceOpportunity zone

Instead of chasing high-intent users — where competition is fierce and margins thin — focus on low-intent leisure travelers. That’s where Airbnb can create intent, not just capture it.

PM Lesson: Great products don’t just respond to demand — they create it.

🧩 Step 4: Hypothesize Boldly, Prioritize Rationally

Form a behavioral hypothesis, not a feature pitch:

If people interact with Airbnb more frequently — even without booking — they’ll book with Airbnb more often when they eventually travel.

Strategic Options

  • Story-Driven Listings: Add personality & local stories to listings (emotional connection).
  • User-Generated Social Feed: Encourage travelers to share photos & memories (social proof, but risk dilution).
  • Enhanced Wishlist Experience (Winner): Turn wishlists into living, Pinterest-like inspiration boards.

Prioritization Lens (Impact/Effort/Risk/Alignment)

IdeaImpactEffortRiskBrand Fit
Story-driven listingsMediumMediumMediumStrong
UGC social feedUnclearHighHighWeak
Wishlist 2.0HighMediumMediumStrong

🧪 Step 5: MVP Like a Scientist, Not a Hero

Test the loop before building the platform.

Phase 1: Newsletter Experiment

  • Send curated inspiration emails to inactive users.
  • Showcase unique stays & experiences.
  • Measure CTR and post-click engagement.

Phase 2: Explore Tab (In-App)

  • Add a lightweight “Explore” surface with visual destinations.
  • Enable save-to-wishlist and “follow place.”
  • Measure dwell time, revisits, and wishlist creation.

Phase 3: Wishlist 2.0

  • Make wishlists collaborative, visual, and recommendation-driven.
  • Track wishlist growth and conversion to booking.

Metrics That Matter

MetricPurpose
Email CTRInterest in inspirational content
Session lengthDepth of exploration
Wishlists per userEngagement loop strength
Wishlist → bookingValidation of habit loop
Nights/user/yearNorth Star (business impact)

Guardrails

  • No discount-led growth loops.
  • Protect host quality and brand ethos.
  • Account for seasonality; compare matched cohorts.

🧭 Step 6: Think Like a Business Leader, Not a Feature Builder

Phil framed trade-offs like an owner: alignment with mission, risk of brand dilution, and opportunity cost. Product management isn’t just about building things right — it’s about building the right things.

💬 Step 7: Handle Pushback Gracefully

When challenged about macro-dependency of intent, Phil reframed the constraint: “We can’t force intent, but we can influence awareness and inspiration.”

Interview Tip: When challenged, don’t pivot in panic — reframe with logic and empathy.

💡 Step 8: Build Confidence, Not Perfection

“They’re not testing whether your idea is right. They’re testing whether you’re a principled thinker who can collaborate.” In real PM work, clarity of thought and iterative learning beat perfect answers.

🧭 The PyUncut 5-Step Playbook

  1. Clarify the Problem — target, scope, time.
  2. Define Success — pick a mission-aligned NSM.
  3. Segment Users — choose a leverage segment with rationale.
  4. Generate & Prioritize Hypotheses — impact, effort, risk, alignment.
  5. MVP & Validate — design a cheap test; define success criteria.

🧱 For Aspiring PMs: Turning Theory Into Practice

If you’re in a PM interview

  • Outline your structure aloud.
  • Use 2×2s to visualize thinking.
  • Speak like a peer; invite pushback.

If you’re an aspiring PM at work

  • Run micro-experiments before proposing builds.
  • Reframe KPIs into behavioral metrics.
  • Say “No” to misaligned feature requests.

6-Week Action Plan

WeekFocusPractice Task
1Problem framingWrite clarifying questions for 3 prompts
2Defining successRedefine goals as NSMs for 5 apps
3User segmentationCreate a 2×2 for any product
4Hypothesis testingDesign one email-based MVP
5CommunicationRecord a 5-min case walkthrough
6ReflectionDocument your personal PM principles

🧩 Meta-Lesson — Product Thinking Is About Humanity

Choosing low-intent leisure travelers wasn’t a segment trick — it was an act of empathy. Every trip starts in the imagination. Your job as a PM is to nurture that spark into behavior.

🔑 Key Takeaways

ThemePM Lesson
Define success firstReframe vague goals into mission-aligned NSMs
Segment usersFind the leverage segment; not all growth is equal
HypothesizeThink in experiments, not opinions
MVPValidate cheaply before scaling expensively
CommunicateClarity beats creativity when stakes are high
Handle pushbackReframe constraints with logic and empathy
Be humanBehind every metric is a motivation

✍️ PyUncut Summary

  • Case: Airbnb — “How to increase bookings”
  • Framework: Clarify → Define → Segment → Hypothesize → Validate
  • North Star: Nights per user per year
  • Focus Segment: Low-intent leisure travelers
  • Winning Bet: Wishlist 2.0 (Inspiration Hub)
  • Key Metric: Engagement → Intent → Conversion
  • PM Skill: Strategic empathy + hypothesis-driven thinking

Attribution: Inspired by an Exponent mock interview (“Airbnb Product Manager Mock Interview — Increase Airbnb Bookings”) and adapted for PyUncut’s PM audience.

© 2025 PyUncut. All rights reserved.


By PyUncut | Product Strategy & Career Growth | Read Time: 12 Minutes


🌍 The Question Every Aspiring PM Must Master

“Imagine you’re a Product Manager at Airbnb. How would you increase bookings?”

At first glance, this question sounds simple — almost like something you could answer in a few bullet points. But for anyone who has faced a real product strategy interview, you know this is a trap.

It’s not about having the right answer.
It’s about how you think.

A product manager’s job isn’t to be a walking idea machine; it’s to make decisions under ambiguity, balance user empathy with business logic, and build conviction through data and clarity.

In a brilliant Exponent mock interview, Google PM Phil tackled this Airbnb case. What unfolded wasn’t just a mock interview — it was a masterclass in structured problem-solving and product mindset.

Let’s unpack his thinking, the frameworks he used, and how you — as an aspiring PM — can apply these lessons in interviews and in real product life.


🧩 Step 1: The Mindset — Think Before You Solve

Before saying a single word about features or experiments, Phil did something that instantly differentiated him.

He asked clarifying questions.

“Do I have free rein over the entire Airbnb experience, or just a specific surface?”

“Are we focusing on new users, existing users, or both?”

“What’s our timeline — short-term or long-term?”

These questions sound tactical, but they serve a deeper purpose: framing the problem space.

Most candidates jump straight into “let’s add a loyalty program” or “let’s give discounts.” That’s reactive thinking.
A real PM operates from principles — not panic.

By clarifying scope, audience, and horizon, Phil established a shared context. In real jobs, this is what separates a “feature PM” from a “strategy PM.”

Lesson for Aspiring PMs:

Before giving solutions, design the question you’re solving for.

It’s not about sounding smart; it’s about being aligned.


🎯 Step 2: Define Success — What Does “Winning” Actually Mean?

Phil could have stopped at “increase bookings.” But he didn’t.

He redefined success into a metric that actually mattered:

“Increase nights per user per year, not just bookings.”

That subtle shift shows deep understanding. Because while “bookings” are easy to chase through discounts or marketing, they don’t represent real engagement.

“Nights per user per year” measures depth — how central Airbnb becomes in someone’s travel life. It aligns perfectly with the company’s mission: help people experience travel authentically.

That’s the art of product thinking — transforming a vanity metric into a North Star Metric (NSM) that aligns user value with business value.


💡 Example: NSM Thinking for PM Interviews

CompanyVanity MetricReal North Star Metric
AirbnbTotal bookingsNights stayed per user per year
YouTubeViewsWatch time per active user
UberRidesTrips per monthly active rider
LinkedInSignupsConnections formed per new user
SpotifyInstallsMonthly listening hours per user

PM Insight:
When asked to “grow” something, don’t chase numbers — anchor to behavior.

Ask yourself: “What metric captures genuine product value, not just activity?”


🧠 Step 3: Segment Users — Because Not All Growth Is Equal

Next, Phil mapped out Airbnb’s users. He recognized it’s a two-sided marketplace — guests and hosts — but focused on guests to keep the problem tractable.

He then segmented travelers along two dimensions:

  1. Travel purpose: Business vs. Leisure
  2. Intent level: High intent (actively planning) vs. Low intent (not currently planning)

That gave him a simple 2×2 grid:

High IntentLow Intent
BusinessAlready loyal to hotelsNot worth chasing
LeisureCompeting on price & convenienceOpportunity zone

And here’s where his product intuition shined.

Instead of chasing high-intent users — where competition is fierce and margins thin — he focused on low-intent leisure travelers.

Why?
Because that’s where Airbnb can create intent, not just capture it.

In other words, instead of fighting Booking.com for people already planning a trip, Airbnb could become the place people go to dream.


✨ The Hidden Power of “Low Intent”

Low-intent users aren’t uninterested — they’re just uninspired.

Every person has travel aspirations tucked away in their subconscious — bucket lists, destinations seen on Instagram, places heard in conversations. The right experience can ignite that intent.

This is why focusing on low-intent travelers isn’t risky; it’s strategic. It transforms Airbnb from a transactional utility into an emotional lifestyle brand.

PM Lesson:

Great products don’t just respond to demand — they create it.


🧩 Step 4: Hypothesize Boldly, Prioritize Rationally

After identifying the “who,” Phil turned to the “how.”

He didn’t brainstorm randomly. He structured his thinking around hypothesis-driven exploration:

“If people interact with Airbnb more frequently — even without booking — they’ll book with us more often when they eventually travel.”

That’s a behavioral hypothesis, not a feature pitch.
And that mindset makes all the difference.

He then proposed three possible directions:

1. Story-Driven Listings

Add personality and storytelling to each listing — showcase hosts’ stories, local culture, and experiences.
👉 Inspires emotional connection.

2. User-Generated Social Feed

Encourage travelers to share photos and memories, building a travel community.
👉 Adds social proof, but risks distraction and FOMO.

3. Enhanced Wishlist Experience

Turn the wishlist into a living, Pinterest-like inspiration board.
👉 Leverages existing behavior; nudges users toward habitual engagement.

His final pick: Wishlist 2.0.

Why? Because it balanced impact, feasibility, and brand alignment. It didn’t require new supply (like business travel) or change Airbnb’s DNA — it simply amplified what made Airbnb special.


⚖️ How to Prioritize Like a PM

Phil implicitly used a prioritization lens combining Impact, Effort, Risk, and Alignment.

IdeaImpactEffortRiskBrand Fit
Story-driven listingsMediumMediumMedium✅ Strong
UGC social feedUnclearHighHigh⚠️ Weak
Wishlist 2.0HighMediumMedium✅ Strong

Takeaway:

The “best” idea isn’t the most creative — it’s the most feasible path to validated learning.


🧪 Step 5: MVP Like a Scientist, Not a Hero

Once you have an idea, most PMs stop thinking.
Great PMs begin testing.

Phil proposed a low-cost, data-first MVP — not a full product launch.

His approach: “test the loop before you build the platform.”

🧰 Phase 1: Newsletter Experiment

  • Send personalized travel-inspiration emails to inactive users.
  • Highlight unique stays or experiences.
  • Measure click-through rate (CTR) and subsequent site activity.

If CTR and engagement are high → validate that inspiration can re-activate interest.

🧱 Phase 2: Explore Tab (In-App)

  • Introduce a lightweight “Explore” mode in the Airbnb app.
  • Surface beautiful destinations and allow users to “wishlist” or “follow” places.
  • Measure dwell time, session depth, and revisit rate.

🧭 Phase 3: Wishlist 2.0

  • Build a robust, visual browsing experience with recommendations and collaboration tools (“Plan with friends”).
  • Track wishlist growth and conversion from wishlist → booking.

This MVP path is brilliant because it:

  • Starts with content, not code.
  • Tests the behavior loop (browse → save → revisit → book).
  • Builds incrementally based on data signals.

PM Lesson:

Don’t just test features — test behaviors.


📊 Step 6: Measure What Matters

Every product initiative must tie back to a measurable business impact.

Phil’s North Star Metric — nights per user per year — cascades into sub-metrics:

MetricPurpose
Email CTRInterest in inspirational content
Session lengthDepth of exploration
Wishlists per userEngagement loop strength
Conversion from wishlist to bookingValidation of habit loop
Nights per user per yearUltimate business impact

This hierarchy creates traceability — every micro metric ladders up to a macro outcome.

That’s how PMs think in systems, not silos.


🧭 Step 7: Think Like a Business Leader, Not a Feature Builder

Throughout the interview, Phil never once said “let’s just build this feature.”

He framed trade-offs like a business owner:

  • “Does this align with Airbnb’s mission?”
  • “Are we risking brand dilution?”
  • “What’s the opportunity cost vs. optimizing supply?”

That’s executive-level thinking.

Because product management isn’t just about building things right — it’s about building the right things.

Aspirant PMs often confuse “product sense” with creativity. But true product sense is strategic empathy — understanding the emotional, economic, and behavioral landscape that shapes decisions.


💬 Step 8: Handle Pushback Gracefully

Midway through the interview, the interviewer challenged Phil:

“Wouldn’t targeting low-intent travelers depend on macro factors you can’t control?”

That’s a fair question — and a trap. Many candidates get defensive or pivot too quickly.

Phil didn’t.

He acknowledged the constraint:

“We can’t force intent. But we can influence awareness and inspiration.”

That’s gold.

Because product strategy isn’t about controlling variables — it’s about shifting probabilities.

Lesson for Interviews:

When challenged, don’t pivot — reframe.


💡 Step 9: Build Confidence, Not Perfection

Toward the end, Phil said something every PM should remember:

“They’re not testing whether your idea is right. They’re testing whether you’re a principled thinker who can collaborate.”

That’s the essence of product interviews.

It’s not about perfect roadmaps — it’s about clarity of thought, humility, and structured iteration.

In a real PM role, every product you launch will face incomplete data, internal pushback, and ambiguous goals. The only thing that carries you through is your ability to reason clearly and learn fast.


🧭 The PyUncut Framework: How to Answer Any Strategy Question

After analyzing dozens of real PM interviews, here’s the 5-step PyUncut playbook inspired by this Airbnb case:

1️⃣ Clarify the Problem

Ask:

  • Who’s the target user?
  • What’s the time horizon?
  • What’s within my control?

2️⃣ Define Success

Translate vague goals into measurable North Star Metrics (NSMs).

3️⃣ Segment Users

Create a 2×2 grid — choose a focus segment with rationale (e.g., low-intent leisure travelers).

4️⃣ Generate & Prioritize Hypotheses

List 2–3 approaches, then rank them by:

  • Impact
  • Effort
  • Risk
  • Mission alignment

5️⃣ MVP & Validate

Design a lightweight, measurable experiment.
Define success criteria and next steps.

Remember: Always end with how you’ll know if you were right.


🧱 For Aspiring PMs: Turning Theory Into Practice

Here’s how you can internalize this thinking beyond interviews:

📍 If you’re in a PM interview:

  • Verbally outline your structure. (“I’ll start by clarifying scope, then define success, then segment users…”)
  • Use whiteboard diagrams or 2×2 grids to visualize your logic.
  • Speak like a peer, not a student.

📍 If you’re an aspiring PM at work:

  • Run micro-experiments with email or analytics before proposing builds.
  • Reframe every KPI into a behavioral metric.
  • Learn to say “No” to feature requests that don’t ladder up to the NSM.

📍 If you’re preparing for your first PM job:

  • Practice 1–2 mock interviews per week on Exponent, RocketBlocks, or with peers.
  • Write one “strategy memo” weekly on random companies (e.g., “How would Netflix grow in rural India?”).
  • Record yourself explaining your reasoning — clarity compounds with practice.

🧩 Step 10: The Meta-Lesson — Product Thinking Is About Humanity

Underneath all frameworks, metrics, and MVPs lies something deeper: empathy.

When Phil chose “low-intent leisure travelers,” he wasn’t chasing a segment — he was tapping into human psychology.

He saw travelers not as users in a funnel, but as dreamers needing inspiration.
He understood that every trip starts in the imagination.

That’s what separates an average PM from a great one.

Because at its core, product management isn’t about managing features. It’s about nurturing behavior change.


🔑 Key Takeaways

ThemePM Lesson
Define success firstReframe vague goals into mission-aligned NSMs
Segment usersNot everyone adds equal value — find the leverage segment
HypothesizeThink in experiments, not opinions
MVPValidate cheaply before scaling expensively
CommunicateClarity beats creativity
Handle pushbackReframe, don’t retreat
Be humanBehind every metric is a motivation

⚙️ PyUncut Action Plan for PM Aspirants

WeekFocusPractice Task
1Problem framingAnalyze 3 PM interview prompts; write your clarifying questions
2Defining successRedefine goals for 5 popular apps using NSMs
3User segmentationCreate a 2×2 for any company (e.g., Netflix users by intent/genre)
4Hypothesis testingDesign one MVP for an idea using email or spreadsheet
5CommunicationRecord yourself explaining a case in 5 minutes
6ReflectionIdentify your own PM “mental model” — what do you optimize for?

🧭 Final Thought: Strategy Is a Muscle

Every great PM started exactly where you are — overthinking mock interviews, doubting frameworks, and feeling like everyone else is smarter.

But strategy is not innate. It’s trainable.

The more cases you break down, the more patterns you’ll recognize:

  • Every question is just a variation of “Who’s the user? What’s the value? How do we prove it?”

If you can answer those three consistently — with clarity, empathy, and data — you’re already ahead of 90% of PM candidates.

So next time someone asks,

“How would you increase Airbnb bookings?”

Don’t give them features.
Give them a framework.


✍️ PyUncut Summary

  • Case: Airbnb — “How to increase bookings”
  • Framework: Clarify → Define → Segment → Hypothesize → Validate
  • North Star: Nights per user per year
  • Focus Segment: Low-intent leisure travelers
  • Winning Bet: Wishlist 2.0 (Inspiration Hub)
  • Key Metric: Engagement → Intent → Conversion
  • PM Skill Practiced: Strategic empathy + hypothesis-driven thinking

🧾 About This Article

This PyUncut piece transforms the Airbnb Product Manager Mock Interview (Exponent, 2024) into a practical guide for PM aspirants. It’s part of our Product Thinking Series, designed to help early-career professionals think like senior PMs — strategically, empathetically, and experimentally.


How Great PMs Think: Lessons from Airbnb’s “Increase Bookings” Challenge
Learn product strategy like a Google PM. Break down the Airbnb “increase bookings” case into actionable frameworks, user segmentation, and MVP design. A must-read for aspiring PMs.
Product Management, PM Interview Prep, Growth Strategy, Airbnb, PyUncut Frameworks, Product Thinking, Career Growth
#ProductManagement #PMInterview #Airbnb #PyUncut #ProductStrategy #CareerGrowth


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