AI, Data Centers, and the Power Problem — The Full Ecosystem
Hyperscalers are accelerating capex, private equity is building faster than publics, CoreWeave is turning crypto mines into GPU fortresses, fiber carriers are back in fashion, and the grid is the new gatekeeper. This is your field guide.
Quick Summary
- Three models: Hyperscale big-box, enterprise colo, and interconnection hubs (Equinix’s moat).
- Capex math: ≈ $12M/MW for shell & core; 3–5× more for IT inside.
- AI effect: Hyperscale pricing roughly doubled; ROIC stepped from ~7–8% to low-teens.
- REIT dynamics: Tax pass-through but reliant on markets for growth capital.
- Private equity: QTS, CyrusOne scale faster via higher leverage and creative financing.
- GPU cloud: CoreWeave ~$16M (2022) → ~$5.3B (2025E); capex ~$21–23B in 2025.
- Power & fiber: Scarcity sustains pricing; fiber long-haul/waves demand re-accelerates.
The Stack: Who Does What?
| Layer | Players | Role |
|---|---|---|
| Landlords / REITs | Equinix (EQIX), Digital Realty (DLR) | Own & operate facilities: power, cooling, security. |
| Private Developers | QTS (Blackstone), CyrusOne (KKR/GIP), Vantage, CoreSite | Build hyperscale campuses; higher leverage. |
| Hyperscalers | AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta | Lease and/or own facilities; massive server capex. |
| GPU Cloud | CoreWeave | Leases buildings, owns GPUs; training/inference clusters. |
| Fiber Carriers | Lumen, Zayo, Cogent, AT&T, Verizon | Long-haul & metro connectivity; sell waves/dark fiber. |
| Construction/Optics | Mastec, Dycom, Corning | Build fiber; supply optical cable and inside-DC fiber. |
| Semis & Gear | NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Cisco, Dell, HPE | GPUs/CPUs, servers, networking, fabrics. |
Unit Economics at a Glance
Interconnection hubs historically deliver superior returns due to network effects and cross-connect density.
Why Interconnection Hubs Still Win (Equinix’s Moat)
Neutral campuses where networks, clouds, CDNs, and enterprises cross-connect create literal network effects. As latency-sensitive AI apps scale (ads, gaming, real-time copilots), proximity to on-ramps in Tier-1 metros becomes an even stronger magnet.
DLR vs. EQIX — Two Roads
- Digital Realty (DLR): Larger hyperscale footprint; benefits from re-pricing and bigger development pipeline.
- Equinix (EQIX): Interconnection leader; temporary AFO/share drag from funding new retail waves hides long-term value.
Both are REITs: tax advantage with reliance on capital markets for growth.
CoreWeave Revenue Trajectory
*Intermediate years illustrative; key figures from the conversation are highlighted.
GPU Cloud Economics (CoreWeave)
EV/EBITDA can obscure reality in heavy-depreciation models. A better lens is unit economics: multi-year contracted cash flows vs. all-in capex and opex. Under tight supply, estimates suggest $0.15–$0.20 of value created per $1 of capex; competition and looser chip supply could compress this.
The Power Bottleneck
- Real but messy: Utility queues include duplicate/speculative requests; totals can overstate true demand.
- Workarounds: On-site gas turbines; retrofitted crypto sites; land-rich, power-rich regions.
- Signals: Capacity auctions (e.g., PJM) incentivize new generation; transformers/transmission remain gating items.
- Pricing: Tight supply sustains returns; normalization likely compresses ROIC.
Fiber’s Second Act
AI clusters need fat pipes. Long-haul wavelengths and metro rings are back.
- Lumen: Ex-Level 3 conduits enable rapid new fiber pulls; signed multi-billion TCV with hyperscalers.
- Cogent: Converting the ex-Sprint network into a waves backbone; a third competitor in a Lumen/Zayo market.
Execution and legacy run-off are the swing factors.
Investor Checklist
| Theme | Who Benefits | Why | Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latency-sensitive inference | Equinix, metro fiber | Traffic concentrates in Tier-1 hubs | Real-time AI app growth |
| Hyperscale repricing | Digital Realty, private DCs | Higher lease rates on renewals | MW delivered, pre-leasing |
| Power scarcity | Owners with secured MW | Scarcity sustains ROIC | Queue filtration, transformer lead-times |
| GPU cloud competition | CoreWeave (near-term) | Contracts vs. obsolescence | Chip cadence, customer mix |
| Transport bandwidth | Lumen, Cogent, Zayo | Waves/dark fiber demand | Price vs. volume, capex |
Risks & Red Flags
- AI demand variability; faster efficiency could lower hardware needs.
- Power/transmission acceleration could compress returns earlier than expected.
- GPU generations shorten economic life; liquid-cooling retrofits lag.
- Tenant concentration & renewal risk in hyperscale leases.
- Higher rates and equity overhang for public REIT growth plans.
- Local moratoria, water limits, siting and permitting friction.
Bottom Line
- Prefer moats: Interconnection hubs compound over time.
- Be selective in hyperscale: Prioritize booked power and re-pricing visibility.
- Underwrite cash, not headlines: GPU cloud unit economics beat EV/EBITDA optics.
- Mind the pipes: Fiber is a tollbooth on AI data flows.
- Follow the grid: Power is the rate-limiter of AI’s next decade.
When people talk about artificial intelligence, they think of algorithms, not acreage.
But the real story of the AI boom isn’t just about smarter models — it’s about the warehouses that house them.
AI has turned data centers — once the boring plumbing of the internet — into the hottest real-estate, power, and capital-intensive assets on Earth. Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta are spending hundreds of billions a year on infrastructure. Private equity firms are buying and building at breakneck speed. Even abandoned crypto mines are being reborn as GPU fortresses.
This is a story about the entire stack: from the landlords who own the buildings, to the fiber that connects them, to the silicon that powers them — and the new entrant, CoreWeave, that went from almost nothing to billions in revenue overnight.
1. What Exactly Is a Data Center?
At its simplest, a data center is a warehouse for computers.
It’s not glamorous — think endless rows of racks filled with servers, backed by diesel generators, cooling systems, and round-the-clock security. But that plain box is where the world’s data is stored, processed, and increasingly, where AI models are trained.
A modern hyperscale data center can cost over a billion dollars to build.
Construction is usually quoted in “megawatts” (MW) — a measure of how much power the facility can supply. On average, it costs about $12 million per MW just for the building shell, and three to five times that amount for the servers, chips, and networking gear inside.
So a 100-MW data center — a large one by today’s standards — might cost $1.2 billion for the building and another $3–5 billion for the equipment inside.
2. The Players in the Stack
The data-center universe has many layers, and the lines between them blur:
- Landlords / Colocation REITs: Digital Realty (DLR) and Equinix (EQIX) dominate this tier. They own the physical facilities — the “shell and core” — and lease space and power capacity to customers.
- Private Builders: QTS (owned by Blackstone), CyrusOne (KKR/GIP), Vantage, and CoreSite (now part of American Tower). They specialize in massive, custom-built hyperscale campuses and often use creative financing and high leverage.
- Hyperscalers: Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Meta. They lease space from REITs or private operators — but also build and own some of their own.
- Fiber Carriers: Lumen, Zayo, Cogent, AT&T, Verizon, Crown Castle — the companies that run the cables connecting data centers across the world.
- Chip and Equipment Vendors: NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Cisco, Dell, HPE — the suppliers of GPUs, CPUs, switches, and racks that fill the halls.
- GPU Cloud Specialists: CoreWeave — a new kind of operator that leases data-center space, fills it with GPUs, and rents computing power for AI workloads.
3. Public vs. Private Capital — The Great Divide
Ten years ago, most data-center companies were public.
Today, many have been taken private by large funds. Why?
Because the capital intensity scares public investors. Building a data center requires massive upfront spending and years of negative free cash flow before profits appear. That story — “we’ll lose money for five years and then maybe cash in later” — doesn’t play well on Wall Street.
Private equity, by contrast, loves it. Firms like Blackstone and KKR can tolerate high leverage, experiment with new financing (like asset-backed securities), and think in decades, not quarters.
That’s why QTS and CyrusOne, once publicly traded, were acquired and scaled privately. They can move faster, borrow more, and take bigger bets than public REITs.
4. The REIT Model: Why Digital Realty and Equinix Matter
Digital Realty and Equinix are both Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).
That means they don’t pay corporate income tax — as long as they distribute most of their profits as dividends. The trade-off? They can’t retain much cash for reinvestment and must regularly tap the equity and debt markets to fund growth.
Still, the REIT structure has worked:
- Digital Realty (DLR) leans toward larger, hyperscale campuses — the kind of facilities hyperscalers rent by the acre.
- Equinix (EQIX) focuses on interconnection hubs — metro data centers packed with networks, clouds, and enterprises all cross-connecting through thousands of fiber links.
Historically, Equinix has earned returns on invested capital (ROIC) in the low-to-mid-teens, far higher than the 7–8% typical of big-box data centers. Why?
Because its model has a built-in network effect.
5. The Moat: Interconnection Hubs
Equinix’s “neutral” campuses became the modern internet’s marketplaces.
In the early days, telecom carriers wouldn’t let competitors interconnect inside their own facilities. Equinix stepped in, built neutral spaces, and invited everyone in. Once a few networks joined, everyone else had to — or risk being left out.
Today, an Equinix data center might host hundreds of networks, thousands of cables, and direct cloud “on-ramps” to AWS, Microsoft, and Google.
The more participants it attracts, the stronger the moat.
That’s why Equinix remains the “Switzerland” of the internet — neutral, interconnected, indispensable.
Its economics are resilient because they rely on diversified connectivity, not just single-tenant hyperscale leases. As latency-sensitive AI applications like gaming, advertising, and real-time copilots emerge, these hubs will only become more critical.
6. How AI Flipped the Industry
Before AI, data-center economics were stable but dull.
Returns hovered near the cost of capital. Pricing even declined year-over-year as competition increased.
Then came the AI demand shock.
Hyperscalers suddenly needed massive clusters of GPUs to train large models. These chips are extremely power-hungry, and you can’t spread them out — they need to sit close together to communicate efficiently.
That created a surge in demand for high-density, high-power facilities.
Supply couldn’t keep up. Prices doubled. And the industry’s returns — previously 7–8% — jumped into the low-teens.
The result: a full-blown infrastructure super-cycle.
Private builders raced to secure land and power. Public REITs accelerated expansions. Hyperscalers poured billions into capex — $350 billion in 2025, up sharply from prior years.
But the biggest winner in the short run wasn’t a REIT or hyperscaler. It was a startup called CoreWeave.
7. CoreWeave: The GPU Cloud Phenomenon
In 2022, CoreWeave made just $16 million in revenue — about what two Chick-fil-A franchises make.
By 2025, it’s expected to hit $5.3 billion.
And by 2028, estimates place it in the mid-$20 billions.
The company leases facilities (often former crypto mines) but owns the equipment inside — racks of NVIDIA GPUs optimized for AI workloads. Microsoft is its largest customer, accounting for about 70% of revenue, with OpenAI contracts adding even more growth.
To deliver those contracts, CoreWeave is spending an astonishing $21–23 billion in capex this year alone — putting it on par with industrial giants like Exxon or AT&T.
The company’s roots are unusual: it started as a crypto-mining firm in 2017. When crypto crashed, it pivoted to AI — repurposing its high-power sites into GPU farms. That move transformed it from a niche miner into one of the most talked-about infrastructure companies in the world.
The Economics Behind the Explosion
Traditional metrics like EV/EBITDA don’t tell the full story.
Depreciation on GPU fleets gets added back, making profitability look better than it is.
A better lens is unit economics:
for every dollar of capex, how much net present value (NPV) is created?
Analyst estimates suggest CoreWeave generates $0.15–$0.20 of value per $1 of investment, depending on chip prices and contract life.
It’s impressive — but risky.
If GPU supply loosens, or hyperscalers build their own, those economics could compress fast.
Valuation and Risks
At today’s prices, CoreWeave’s stock (which has swung wildly) bakes in massive future growth. Its relationships with Microsoft and NVIDIA give it an advantage now, but the big cloud providers — AWS, Azure, Google — are already catching up.
Potential red flags:
- Customer concentration: Microsoft/OpenAI dominate its revenue.
- Chip cycle risk: GPUs evolve fast; shorter lifespans mean faster write-offs.
- Capital intensity: Every contract requires billions in upfront investment.
- Power availability: Scaling depends on securing grid access in constrained regions.
Still, CoreWeave represents something rare: a true “infrastructure hyper-growth” story — the hardware backbone of the AI era.
8. The Power Bottleneck
All of this growth runs into one immutable constraint: electricity.
AI training is brutally power-hungry.
A single GPU cluster can consume tens of megawatts. Multiply that by hundreds of data centers, and you get a national power crunch.
By 2025, U.S. data centers are projected to consume over 25 gigawatts of electricity — roughly 2–3% of the nation’s total. That could double by 2030.
The result is a bottleneck that’s both real and misunderstood.
Why the Crisis Is Partly Overstated
Utilities report eye-popping connection requests, but many are duplicates.
Hyperscalers often shop multiple sites simultaneously, and speculative developers request capacity “just in case.” So the total demand in utility queues exaggerates reality.
How Operators Are Adapting
To keep projects alive, developers are getting creative:
- Building on-site gas turbines near pipelines to self-generate power until grid access arrives.
- Repurposing crypto mines in power-rich states like Texas, North Dakota, and Iowa.
- Forming direct partnerships with utilities or renewable providers to lock in capacity.
In time, the market will rebalance — high electricity prices will incentivize new generation. But until then, scarcity supports pricing and margins for the companies that already secured capacity.
Ironically, when power becomes abundant again, returns may normalize back toward pre-AI levels.
9. Fiber’s Second Act: Lumen and Cogent
The AI boom isn’t just about the boxes — it’s also about the pipes.
You can’t run massive models without moving petabytes of data between clusters.
That’s where fiber carriers come in.
Lumen Technologies
Formerly CenturyLink, Lumen inherited the long-haul fiber network built by Level 3 during the dot-com boom.
Level 3 buried multiple conduits in each route but only ever used one — leaving miles of empty pipes underground. Now, those unused conduits are gold: they allow Lumen to add new fiber quickly and cheaply.
As hyperscalers scramble for bandwidth, Lumen has struck multibillion-dollar deals to pull new fiber through those dormant tubes. For the first time in a decade, its declining business could see real growth.
Cogent Communications
Cogent is smaller but nimble. It recently acquired Sprint’s old “pin-drop” network and is converting it into a new long-haul backbone optimized for AI traffic.
It’s a bold move — and one that positions Cogent as the third serious competitor in a space long dominated by Lumen and Zayo.
For both companies, AI represents a second chance. But the challenge remains: balancing growth from AI traffic against the drag from legacy telecom revenue.
10. How to Value the Ecosystem
Each layer of the stack has its own metrics:
| Subsector | Core Metric | Edge Case |
|---|---|---|
| Interconnection REITs (EQIX) | AFO/share growth, ROIC, cross-connect density | Temporary drag during build waves hides long-term value |
| Hyperscale-oriented REITs (DLR, QTS) | Development yield, pre-leasing, MW secured | Returns fall as power normalizes |
| GPU Cloud (CoreWeave) | NPV per $ capex, contract duration | EV/EBITDA inflates value due to depreciation add-backs |
| Fiber Carriers (Lumen, Cogent) | Wavelength sales, utilization, churn | AI tailwinds must outpace pricing pressure |
For investors, the playbook depends on your risk appetite:
- Defensive: Stick with Equinix — steady cash flow, durable moat.
- Cyclical growth: Digital Realty or private-equity-backed developers with secured power.
- Speculative: CoreWeave — pure exposure to the AI-GPU buildout.
- Levered picks: Lumen or Cogent — high risk, but potentially explosive if bandwidth demand accelerates.
11. Risks to Watch
- Demand volatility: AI spending could cool if efficiency improves or if training budgets shrink.
- Supply catch-up: Faster permitting or transformer manufacturing could ease shortages and lower pricing.
- Technology turnover: New GPU generations shorten asset lives and strain balance sheets.
- Customer concentration: Single-tenant hyperscale leases expose operators to renewal risk.
- Financing pressure: Rising interest rates and public-market skepticism limit cheap capital.
- Regulatory headwinds: Local moratoriums on power use or water cooling could delay builds.
12. The Big Picture: Infrastructure as the New Moat
Every technological revolution eventually meets the laws of physics.
AI has hit that wall — literally.
The bottleneck isn’t imagination or code. It’s steel, copper, power, and land.
And the companies solving those constraints — from data-center REITs to GPU-cloud operators — are building the rails for the next decade of computing.
For investors, the message is clear:
- Favor durable moats. Interconnection hubs like Equinix are long-term winners.
- Be tactical in hyperscale. Prioritize operators with booked power and re-pricing potential.
- Scrutinize GPU clouds. Focus on cash contracts and asset turnover, not headline growth.
- Don’t forget the pipes. Fiber carriers are the silent beneficiaries of AI traffic.
- Track the grid. Power is the new currency of the digital age.
Final Thought
AI may be virtual, but its empire is built on concrete.
The next trillion dollars in infrastructure spending won’t go to social apps or streaming platforms — it will go to servers, substations, and steel.
In that sense, the modern data center is becoming what railroads were to the 19th century and oil refineries were to the 20th: the physical backbone of a digital economy.
And like every backbone, it’s invisible — until it breaks.
Disclaimer:
This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Do your own due diligence and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.