Weekly AI & Tech Earnings — Visual Wrap
Quick Summary
- AI remains the market’s growth engine. Google, Microsoft, and Meta all beat — and raised 2025 capex.
- Capex Moats: Google >$90B, Microsoft ~ $80B, Meta low-$70B. Balance sheets diverge.
- Valuation Milestones: Nvidia ≈ $5T; Apple & Microsoft > $4T.
- Winners: AWS & Ads lift Amazon; Eli Lilly outperforms on weight-loss meds.
- Pressure: Homebuilders, payments ex-V/MA, residential solar, Chipotle.
Macro & Policy Notes
• Fed cut 25 bps (2nd time in 2025), hinted caution on next cut.
• US–China: one‑year truce, not a full deal.
• Markets up double‑digits YTD; earnings anxiety faded.
Context supports risk appetite for AI infrastructure names; watch rates & policy drift.
AI Capex — The New Moat (FY25 guidance)
Scale favors cloud providers: Google & Microsoft monetize AI infra directly via cloud demand, while Meta’s spend leans product‑side.
Cash & Liquidity Snapshot
| Company | Cash & Equivalents | Trend vs 2024 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| $98.5B | Up | Cloud-funded | |
| Microsoft | $102B | Up | Cloud-funded |
| Meta | $44.4B | Down 43% | Product-first |
Balance sheets determine who can sustain multi‑year AI opex + capex cycles.
Valuation Scale — Market Cap Tiers
Earnings Pulse — Highlights
Sector Sentiment (Qualitative)
| Sector | Signal | Momentum Bar |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infra / Cloud | Strong | |
| Payments (ex V/MA) | Fragile | |
| Homebuilders | Weak | |
| Telecom | Watch | |
| Weight-loss Pharma | Winner |
Qualitative assessment derived from weekly results and forward guides discussed in the wrap.
Notable Moves & Announcements
- Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia — co-develop 6G on NV chips.
- Oracle, AMD sign ChatGPT-linked deals; PayPal added as payment engine.
- Amazon to lay off 14,000 corporate roles in AI shift.
- Qualcomm–Uain chip deal; capacity smaller vs. Nvidia/AMD.
Meta vs. Google vs. Microsoft — Why Reactions Differed
- Revenue Mix: Cloud (GOOG/MSFT) monetize AI infra now; Meta’s spend is product-led.
- Capex Load: Similar absolute spend, different monetization timing.
- Liquidity: Meta cash down 43% y/y vs. GOOG/MSFT up.
Short‑term equity reactions are often balance‑sheet and monetization‑timing stories.
Consumer & Retail Check
- Chipotle: 3rd cut to SSS outlook; frequency down; margin pressure risk.
- Starbucks: First positive SSS in 2 yrs but EPS miss; slow-turnaround.
- Carvana: Revenue strong; EPS miss & margin pressure; -10% this week.
Healthcare
- UnitedHealth: Rev +12% but margin compression; Optum Health ~1% margin.
- Eli Lilly: EPS beat; revenue $17.6B; leads weight-loss category.
3 Investor Takeaways
If one theme defined the last week of October 2025, it was this: artificial intelligence has officially become the backbone of modern capitalism. Over 150 companies reported earnings, but only a handful dictated the mood of global markets — Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. Together, they didn’t just deliver strong numbers; they reaffirmed that the AI revolution is not a passing fad but a structural transformation shaping every industry.
From trillion-dollar valuations to massive capital expenditure plans, from layoffs to cloud expansion, the message was clear: we are in the midst of an AI arms race that will define the next decade.
Let’s break down the major takeaways from one of the busiest, most revealing weeks of the year.
The AI Gold Rush Accelerates
Meta, Google, and Microsoft all reported blockbuster quarters — each surpassing Wall Street’s expectations for both revenue and earnings per share. Yet, their stock reactions were puzzling: Google surged 7%, Meta dropped 7%, and Microsoft fell 4%.
The difference, as veteran investor Steve Eisman pointed out, lies not in performance but in positioning. Google and Microsoft are generating real revenue from AI investments through their massive cloud businesses. Every dollar spent on AI infrastructure — data centers, GPUs, and networking — directly powers customer demand. Meta, in contrast, is building AI internally for future products, not current monetization. That makes its capital outlay riskier and harder to justify in the short term.
All three companies raised their 2025 capex guidance dramatically:
- Google: Over $90 billion
- Microsoft: Around $80 billion
- Meta: In the $70 billion range
These are not one-time expenditures; they’re strategic bets on the longevity of AI demand. For context, these three companies alone are now spending more on capital infrastructure than the GDP of some small nations.
Even more striking is how comfortably Google and Microsoft are handling these costs. Both saw cash balances rise year-over-year — $98.5 billion for Google, $102 billion for Microsoft — while Meta’s cash reserves fell from $77.8 billion to $44.4 billion.
This imbalance tells the real story: Big Tech’s AI revolution is a two-tier game. Those with diversified, profitable ecosystems (cloud, ads, enterprise software) can fund aggressive AI investment with ease. The rest must take on risk just to keep up.
The Market’s New Trillion-Dollar Club
Nvidia reached a stunning $5 trillion valuation this week, while Apple and Microsoft crossed the $4 trillion mark. The sheer scale of these numbers makes Europe’s markets look prehistoric — the largest company on the continent still sits below $500 billion.
It’s more than just bragging rights. These valuations underscore a massive divergence in global innovation. The U.S. market continues to outpace the world in technological dynamism, fueled by AI, software, and digital infrastructure. Europe, burdened by regulation and lack of venture scale, remains stagnant.
The U.S. economy has effectively turned AI into an export industry — not of products, but of algorithms, chips, and cloud computing power. The race is no longer about who builds the next smartphone or app; it’s about who controls the data pipelines, compute power, and cognitive interfaces of the next era.
The New AI Power Alliances
A series of deals this week showed just how quickly the AI ecosystem is evolving.
- Oracle signed a massive partnership with ChatGPT, pushing its stock higher.
- AMD followed with its own ChatGPT collaboration.
- PayPal was announced as a payment engine for ChatGPT, sending its shares soaring.
- Nvidia took a $1 billion stake in Nokia to co-develop a 6G network powered by its chips.
- Qualcomm joined the party with a deal to supply chips to Uain, a Saudi Arabian AI startup building massive data centers in the region.
Each of these moves underscores a new industrial reality — AI is no longer a single-sector story. It’s infiltrating telecom, finance, and even energy infrastructure.
However, not every partnership guarantees big revenue. As Eisman noted, Qualcomm’s deal might not be as large as it sounds, since Uain already signed capacity commitments with Nvidia and AMD that are twice as big. The frenzy of partnerships suggests a gold rush mentality where perception matters as much as actual orders.
Still, one thing is undeniable: AI has become the gravitational center of corporate strategy. Any company that can attach its name to ChatGPT, Nvidia, or cloud computing sees an immediate market premium.
When AI Replaces Jobs, Not Just Costs
While investors cheer the growth, the human side of AI is beginning to surface. Amazon announced it will lay off 14,000 corporate workers, redirecting savings toward AI and automation. It’s the first large-scale sign of what many economists have predicted: as companies shift to algorithmic productivity, the cost will be borne by middle and upper management, not just blue-collar jobs.
This isn’t just an Amazon story. Across industries, AI is quietly rewriting the balance sheet of labor. The promise of efficiency often comes with hidden unemployment. For now, Wall Street loves it — margins expand, costs fall, and growth looks infinite. But as these effects compound, the broader economy will eventually face the societal consequences of automation at scale.
Apple’s AI Dilemma
Apple delivered strong quarterly results, beating on earnings and revenue, and projecting 10–12% growth next quarter. iPhone 17 sales are exceeding expectations, and the company’s lucrative $20 billion annual deal with Google remains intact after the recent antitrust ruling.
And yet, Apple remains the odd one out in the AI conversation. It has no coherent AI strategy — no large-scale model, no visible cloud footprint, and no enterprise-facing AI story. For a company that once led every major consumer technology wave, Apple now looks reactive rather than visionary.
Investors cheered the earnings, but the lingering question remains: can Apple afford to sit out the AI arms race? For now, hardware and ecosystem strength are carrying it forward. But in the coming decade, “AI-first” might be the new definition of premium technology.
Amazon’s Comeback Moment
After lagging behind its Big Tech peers all year — up just 1% before earnings — Amazon finally delivered a breakout quarter. EPS came in at $1.97 vs. $1.57 expected, and both AWS and advertising revenue beat forecasts. The stock surged more than 10% after hours.
The rebound signals a turning point. Amazon Web Services continues to dominate the cloud space, and its integration of AI tools across retail, logistics, and advertising gives it multiple growth engines. More importantly, Amazon’s renewed focus on profitability marks a shift from the growth-at-all-costs era to a more balanced, investor-friendly model.
If 2023 and 2024 were about survival and restructuring, 2025 might be the year Amazon reclaims its role as a market leader — powered by both AI and disciplined financial execution.
The Payments Shakeup
While tech stocks soared, the payments sector had a rough week. Visa performed well — revenue up 12%, payment volume up 9% — reaffirming the resilience of global consumer spending. But outside the duopoly of Visa and Mastercard, chaos reigned.
Fiserv, once a dominant player, imploded. The company missed every major financial metric, fired its senior management, and admitted it had been masking problems for years. Shares crashed more than 40% in a single day and are down over 60% for the year.
The episode underscores how brutally competitive the payment landscape has become. Startups, digital wallets, and new AI-enabled payment engines are eating away at legacy players. For investors, it’s a reminder that beyond Visa and Mastercard’s oligopoly, the payments space remains a minefield.
Homebuilders, Healthcare, and Solar: The Rest of the Market
Beyond AI, the traditional economy painted a mixed picture.
Homebuilders like D.R. Horton reported weak results, with revenue down 3% and earnings per share plunging 22% year-over-year. Rising rates have cooled demand, and companies are resorting to incentives that crush margins. The housing market is no longer a profit engine — it’s a survival game.
In healthcare, UnitedHealth showed that even giants aren’t immune to structural problems. While revenue rose 12%, margins collapsed as government reimbursement issues at its Optum Health division worsened. Operating margin fell from 8.3% to just 1%. Investors seem to believe it’s a temporary problem. Eisman doesn’t.
And then there’s residential solar. Once the darling of the clean energy boom, it has now collapsed under the weight of fading tax incentives and rising costs. Enphase, a former high-flyer, reported $410 million in revenue but guided down to $250 million for next year. The stock has crashed from $340 in 2022 to just $32 — a cautionary tale of how quickly policy shifts can destroy momentum industries.
Telecom and the Price War Fears
The U.S. telecom landscape is also shifting. AT&T and T-Mobile reported strong results, while Verizon — after firing its CEO — disappointed again. The market fears Verizon might respond with aggressive price cuts to stop its market share slide. That could ignite a price war, compressing margins across the sector.
The irony is that while telecom is a critical enabler of the AI era, it remains trapped in the economics of commodity pricing. Infrastructure-heavy, regulation-bound, and slow to innovate, the sector shows how unevenly the benefits of the digital boom are distributed.
From Chipotle to Carvana: The Consumer Reality
Chipotle, once a Wall Street darling, has lost its sizzle. Same-store sales growth turned negative, and management warned that inflation and cautious consumers are eroding margins. The stock has fallen 45% this year — a brutal reminder that even beloved brands can fall from grace when growth stalls.
Starbucks, too, is struggling. The company finally posted a small same-store sales increase — its first in two years — but missed EPS expectations. Investors remain skeptical of its turnaround story.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly continues to dominate the pharmaceutical landscape. Its blockbuster weight-loss drugs propelled revenue to $17.6 billion, blowing past expectations and outpacing rival Novo Nordisk. The healthcare revolution may not be in AI, but in the biology of better living.
And then there’s Carvana — the stock that refused to die. Once trading at $3.50, it soared above $400 this year before correcting. This week, weak margins and missed earnings sent shares tumbling 10%. The used car market remains chaotic, mirroring the post-pandemic shifts in consumer demand and credit availability.
The Bigger Picture: A Market Fueled by Perception
Eisman’s commentary underscores an uncomfortable truth: markets today move less on fundamentals and more on narratives. Nvidia’s valuation, Meta’s AI bets, Apple’s missing strategy — all are interpreted through the lens of the AI story.
In that sense, this week was less about earnings and more about conviction. Every company that tied its identity to AI — Nvidia, AMD, Oracle, even PayPal — was rewarded. Those without a clear AI angle, from Chipotle to Verizon, were punished.
The pattern reveals something deeper about investor psychology. We are in the early innings of the AI cycle, and markets are treating AI exposure like they once treated internet exposure in 1999 or cloud exposure in 2012. Everyone wants in, even if the numbers don’t justify it yet.
Lessons for Investors
For readers of PyUncut, there are three big takeaways from this earnings season:
- AI is the new infrastructure. It’s not a trend; it’s becoming a utility — like electricity or the internet. Every company will either integrate it or be disrupted by those that do.
- Capex is the competitive moat. The companies that can spend tens of billions annually on AI infrastructure — Google, Microsoft, Nvidia — are effectively creating barriers too high for others to cross.
- Cash flow is king. The contrast between Meta’s shrinking cash pile and Google’s or Microsoft’s growing reserves highlights how vital balance sheet strength has become in sustaining long-term innovation.
The Road Ahead
As the Federal Reserve’s cautious tone and the U.S.–China trade “truce” reminded us, macro uncertainty isn’t going away. But for now, the market’s anxiety has faded. Indices are up double digits for the year, and AI continues to be the rising tide lifting every major tech player.
The world may be debating the risks of AI — from job loss to ethical control — but on Wall Street, the verdict is in. AI is no longer the future of technology. It is technology.
And as this week proved, it’s also the future of the market itself.
This editorial is based on the market insights from the week ending October 31, 2025. It is intended for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice. Please do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.