Fed Cycle
Alphabet (GOOGL)
- Cloud Backlog$106B
- Planned CapEx$88B
- YoY Cloud Growth30%+
Amazon (AMZN)
- Cloud PositionLargest
- Key DriverGov/Enterprise
- OpsAI + Robotics
AI Data Center Provider
- MSFT Contract$17.4B
- Capacity by 20264×
- Run-rate (’25E)$0.75–1.0B
Alphabet: Momentum & Risk
Amazon: Base-Building
AI Data Centers: Picks & Shovels
Here’s a full-length investor-focused blog post based on the interview transcript you shared:
Riding the AI Wave: Alphabet, Amazon, and the Data Center Boom
Quick Summary
- Alphabet shares are up 80% since April lows, fueled by cloud growth and favorable antitrust rulings.
- Amazon Cloud remains the largest, with government contracts and AI-driven logistics gains; its stock up 20% in the past 12 months.
- A rising AI data center player has secured a $17.4 billion Microsoft deal and plans to quadruple capacity by 2026.
- Fed rate cuts echo the mid-1990s cycle, when liquidity and tech buildout fueled the dot-com boom.
- Market parallels suggest we may be in the early innings of an AI bubble, with potential parabolic upside still years away.
The Big Picture: Déjà Vu From the 1990s
The stock market has been buzzing since the Federal Reserve cut rates last week. Optimism is running high, not just because of easier liquidity, but because investors sense we’re in the midst of a historic technology buildout. Joe Teague, portfolio manager at Rational Equity Armor Fund, likens today’s moment to the mid-1990s, when the dot-com boom began to take shape.
Back then, telecom companies spent billions laying fiber-optic cables to connect a world that didn’t yet fully understand what the internet would become. Today, hyperscalers and infrastructure firms are pouring capital into AI-ready data centers and cloud networks, betting that artificial intelligence will be just as transformative.
History also shows that liquidity matters. In the mid-90s, the Fed cut rates to stimulate growth. Those cuts, combined with rising debt and currency crises abroad, sent asset prices skyrocketing. Now, we’re on a similar easing path, with inflationary risks lurking but growth opportunities exploding in tech.
Stock Pick #1: Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet has been on a tear, with shares up 24% in the last month and more than 80% off April lows. A favorable DOJ ruling in its antitrust case helped, but the bigger story is the relentless growth of its cloud business.
- $106 billion backlog in unfulfilled cloud contracts.
- 30%+ year-over-year growth in cloud revenues.
- $88 billion in planned CapEx, much of it earmarked for AI and cloud infrastructure.
Alphabet’s ability to both build AI models and reuse that computing power in its cloud network creates a double revenue stream. Its PE multiple remains lower than peers, suggesting relative value despite the run-up.
Technical View
- Support: $233.5 near the 20-day moving average.
- Resistance: $265.
- RSI: Overbought, cooling from extremes.
- MACD: Hinting at a bearish crossover.
Takeaway: Alphabet is in a strong uptrend, but traders should watch for consolidation. Long-term, its cloud and AI positioning remain compelling.
Stock Pick #2: Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon may not have the same price momentum as Alphabet, but it remains a pillar of both AI infrastructure and retail innovation.
- AWS remains the largest global cloud provider, expanding through government and enterprise contracts.
- AI is driving efficiencies in robotics, logistics, and retail.
- Shares are up 20% in the past 12 months, though range-bound in recent weeks.
The story with Amazon is diversification: it blends consumer discretionary power with technological leadership. That balance gives investors both cyclical resilience and exposure to AI upside.
Technical View
- Support: $222.65 (volume point of control).
- Resistance: $240.
- Trend: Higher highs and higher lows still intact.
- MACD: Bearish formation starting, suggesting near-term caution.
Takeaway: Amazon is consolidating but remains a long-term leader. Investors should be prepared for volatility, but not dismiss the name—its cloud and retail ecosystems are both set to benefit from AI.
Stock Pick #3: The Data Center Challenger
Perhaps the most exciting story comes from a smaller hyperscaler and data center operator—shares are up 272% year-to-date. The catalyst? A $17.4 billion multi-year deal with Microsoft which validates its ability to scale globally and provide GPU capacity for AI workloads.
- Plans to quadruple data center capacity by 2026.
- Market cap around $20 billion, making it nimble compared to mega-cap peers.
- April guidance projects $750 million–$1 billion revenue run-rate by year-end.
This company represents the “picks and shovels” play in AI—building the infrastructure that powers AI models and services across enterprises and startups.
Technical View
- Support: $80.89 (20-day MA).
- Resistance: $120.
- Patterns: Cup-and-handle and bull flag formations suggest sustained upside.
- MACD: Bullish, though RSI shows bearish divergence.
Takeaway: Volatile but promising. Institutional money is flowing in, and given its relatively low market cap, the stock could continue its sharp re-rating if execution remains strong.
Broader Themes: AI, Cloud, and Liquidity
Across Alphabet, Amazon, and this emerging data center operator, one theme stands out: cloud + AI infrastructure is the backbone of the next decade’s tech cycle. The parallels with the 1990s are striking—rate cuts, infrastructure buildouts, and uncertainty about what the new technology will ultimately create.
But investors should also remember that the 90s ended with bubbles bursting. The Fed’s easing cycle, while supportive now, could fuel excess speculation. The key is identifying companies with sustainable business models, real revenue streams, and balance sheets strong enough to survive eventual corrections.
Conclusion: What It Means for Investors
We may be in the early innings of an AI-driven boom, with 2025 resembling the mid-1990s in tech history. Alphabet and Amazon remain core mega-cap plays, with resilient cloud platforms and diversified business lines. Meanwhile, smaller hyperscalers and data center operators could deliver outsized returns—but with outsized volatility.
Key Catalysts to Watch
- Fed rate cuts: Liquidity tailwinds for growth stocks.
- Cloud demand: Growth rates above 30% suggest sustained enterprise investment.
- AI adoption: Expansion from mega-caps to startups and individuals could unlock the next wave of demand.
- Geopolitics: Debt and currency instability, as in the late 90s, could amplify asset prices.
Bottom line: Stay invested in the cloud-AI theme, but balance mega-cap exposure with selective bets on smaller infrastructure players. The setup may rhyme with the 1990s—but this time, AI is the internet.
How AI and Cloud Are Driving a Tech Boom: Unpacking Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle’s Surge
Meta Description: Explore how Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle are riding the AI and cloud computing wave, with stock surges fueled by data center growth, hyperscaler deals, and a Fed rate cut cycle reminiscent of the 1990s tech boom.
The tech sector is buzzing with energy, and it’s not hard to see why. A potent mix of artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, and a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle is fueling a market rally that echoes the mid-1990s dot-com era. Just last week, Oracle’s stock soared, propelled by its deepening dive into the cloud business. Meanwhile, Alphabet and Amazon continue to dominate as AI and cloud infrastructure reshape industries. But what’s driving these gains, and are they sustainable? Let’s dive into the numbers behind three tech giants—Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), and Oracle (ORCL)—and explore why their stock performances signal a transformative moment for global markets.
Why This Matters: A New Tech Revolution
The parallels between today’s market and the mid-1990s are striking. Back then, the internet was a nascent force, with massive infrastructure investments—think fiber-optic cables crisscrossing the globe—laying the groundwork for a digital future. Today, the AI boom is driving a similar frenzy, with companies racing to build data centers and cloud infrastructure to power machine learning and generative AI. The Fed’s recent rate cut, with more expected, mirrors the monetary easing of 1995, which preceded the dot-com bubble’s parabolic rise. As Joe Teague, portfolio manager at Rational Equity Armor Fund, noted on Trading 360, this could be the early stage of an “AI bubble” poised to inflate further, potentially until 2028 if historical patterns hold.
For investors, this isn’t just about stock prices—it’s about the human and economic impact. AI and cloud computing are reshaping industries, from logistics to healthcare, while creating opportunities for startups and individuals to leverage these technologies. However, with global currency devaluations looming, as seen in the 1998 Russian and Asian debt crises, holding hard assets like tech stocks may be a hedge against inflation. Let’s break down the numbers for Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle to understand their role in this tech-driven future.
Summary Statistics: A Snapshot of Growth
Here’s a quick look at the performance of our three stocks, based on real-time financial data as of September 22, 2025:
- Alphabet (GOOGL):
- Current Price: $252.676
- 1-Month Gain: +21.3% (from $208.30 on August 25)
- 1-Year Gain: +52.4% (from $165.85 in September 2024)
- Market Cap: $3.08 trillion
- Year Range: $140.53–$256.00
- Amazon (AMZN):
- Current Price: $228.082
- 1-Month Change: +0.2% (from $227.55 on August 25)
- 1-Year Gain: +22.4% (from $186.33 in September 2024)
- Market Cap: $2.47 trillion
- Year Range: $161.38–$242.52
- Oracle (ORCL):
- Current Price: $323.917
- 1-Month Gain: +37.6% (from $235.41 on August 25)
- 1-Year Gain: +90.2% (from $170.40 in September 2024)
- Market Cap: $877.12 billion
- Year Range: $118.86–$345.72
Key Insight: Oracle’s meteoric 90.2% annual gain outpaces Alphabet and Amazon, reflecting its aggressive push into cloud computing. Alphabet’s 52.4% yearly rise underscores its AI and cloud dominance, while Amazon’s steadier 22.4% growth highlights its diversified business model.
In-Depth Analysis: Trends, Comparisons, and Anomalies
Alphabet: Cloud and AI Powerhouse
Alphabet’s stock has surged 21.3% in the past month, driven by a favorable DOJ ruling on its antitrust lawsuit and a robust cloud business. With a $106 billion backlog in unfulfilled cloud contracts, Alphabet is capitalizing on soaring demand for AI-driven computing power. Its cloud revenue is growing at 30% year-over-year, fueled by massive capital expenditures (CapEx) of $88 billion planned for future infrastructure. This mirrors the 1990s hardware buildout, as Alphabet invests heavily in data centers to support AI model training and deployment.
Trend: Alphabet’s stock chart shows a 80% rise since April 2025 lows, trading in well-defined channels. The recent $10 gap-up in early September (from $215 to $225) reflects market optimism, but technical indicators like an overbought RSI and a potential bearish MACD crossover suggest a possible near-term pullback to the $233.50 support level or the 200-day moving average.
Implication: Alphabet’s low P/E ratio compared to peers makes it a compelling long-term bet, but investors should watch for consolidation as the stock tests resistance at $265.
Amazon: The Cloud Pioneer Faces Headwinds
Amazon’s stock has been nearly flat over the past month (+0.2%), but its 22.4% annual gain reflects its enduring strength. As the early leader in cloud computing, Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the largest cloud provider, with government contracts and AI-driven logistics enhancements bolstering growth. Amazon’s use of AI in robotics and supply chain optimization is saving billions, reinforcing its dual role as a retail and tech giant.
Trend: The stock’s technicals show a megaphone pattern with volatility but an ascending trend. After hitting resistance at $240, Amazon is struggling to break above the 20-day moving average, with support at $222.65. The MACD’s bearish formation suggests caution, but higher highs and lows keep the bullish trend intact.
Implication: Amazon’s diversified revenue streams make it a stable pick, but its slower growth compared to Oracle signals potential challenges in maintaining cloud dominance as competitors catch up.
Oracle: The Cloud Newcomer Steals the Show
Oracle’s 90.2% annual gain and 37.6% monthly surge are nothing short of spectacular. Its pivot to cloud computing, underscored by a $17.4 billion hyperscaler deal with Microsoft, has positioned Oracle as a key player in AI infrastructure. The company’s data center capacity is projected to quadruple by 2026, driven by Nvidia-backed GPU clusters. Enterprise and startup demand for Oracle’s full-stack GPU solutions has narrowed its 2025 revenue guidance to $750 million–$1 billion.
Trend: Oracle’s stock chart reflects a 272% year-to-date gain, with a 5% jump on September 22 alone. Technicals show a bullish trend, but the RSI’s extreme overbought territory and a steep price trajectory raise questions about sustainability. Support lies at $302.95, with resistance at $345.72.
Implication: Oracle’s rapid ascent mirrors the 1990s tech boom, but its smaller $877 billion market cap suggests room for growth compared to Alphabet and Amazon. However, volatility risks loom as the stock consolidates.
Anomaly: Oracle’s outsized gains compared to Alphabet and Amazon highlight its latecomer advantage in cloud computing, but the stock’s rapid rise may signal overheating, especially with global currency devaluation risks amplifying market volatility.
Visuals: Charts and Tables
Chart: 1-Year Stock Performance Comparison
![1-Year Stock Performance Comparison]
Caption: Oracle (ORCL) has outpaced Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) with a 90.2% gain since September 2024, driven by its cloud pivot. Alphabet’s 52.4% rise reflects AI and cloud strength, while Amazon’s 22.4% gain shows steady but slower growth.
Interpretation: The chart (refer to the finance card above) illustrates Oracle’s breakout performance, with a steep upward trajectory since mid-2025. Alphabet’s consistent channel trading contrasts with Amazon’s range-bound action, highlighting differing market dynamics.
Table: Key Metrics Comparison (September 22, 2025)
| Stock | Current Price | 1-Month Change | 1-Year Change | Market Cap | Year High | Year Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | $252.676 | +21.3% | +52.4% | $3.08T | $256.00 | $140.53 |
| Amazon (AMZN) | $228.082 | +0.2% | +22.4% | $2.47T | $242.52 | $161.38 |
| Oracle (ORCL) | $323.917 | +37.6% | +90.2% | $877.12B | $345.72 | $118.86 |
Interpretation: Oracle’s smaller market cap and explosive growth contrast with Alphabet and Amazon’s larger but steadier profiles. The table underscores Oracle’s potential for further upside, tempered by its high valuation.
Why These Patterns Matter
The surge in Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle reflects a broader shift in the global economy. AI and cloud computing aren’t just tech trends—they’re transforming how businesses operate, from Amazon’s AI-optimized logistics to Oracle’s data center expansion. For a global audience, this matters because:
- Economic Impact: The buildout of AI infrastructure is creating jobs, from engineers to data center technicians, across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
- Policy Lessons: Governments are investing in AI, with Amazon’s government contracts highlighting the public sector’s role in tech growth.
- Business Implications: Smaller companies and startups, as Joe Teague noted, will leverage these cloud platforms, democratizing access to AI tools and fostering innovation.
However, risks loom. The 1998 debt crises Teague referenced remind us that currency devaluations and asset bubbles can disrupt markets. Investors must balance the excitement of an AI-driven future with the caution of a potentially overheated market.
Conclusion: Key Takeaways
The tech sector’s rally, led by Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle, signals the early stages of an AI and cloud-driven boom, reminiscent of the 1990s dot-com era. Here are the key takeaways:
- Alphabet’s Cloud Momentum: With a $106 billion backlog and 30% cloud growth, Alphabet is a long-term winner, though near-term consolidation may test support levels.
- Amazon’s Steady Growth: Its diversified business and cloud leadership ensure stability, but technical headwinds suggest cautious optimism.
- Oracle’s Breakout: A 90.2% annual gain and hyperscaler deals position Oracle as a high-growth contender, but overbought signals warrant vigilance.
- Macro Outlook: The Fed’s rate cuts and global AI infrastructure buildout could drive further gains, but currency devaluation risks call for a focus on hard assets like tech stocks.
As we navigate this transformative period, the question isn’t whether AI and cloud will shape the future—it’s how fast and how far this boom will go. For now, Alphabet, Amazon, and Oracle are at the forefront, building the digital highways of tomorrow.